The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its March meeting but signaled a more dovish outlook, projecting two quarter-point cuts by year-end.
Market reaction: The S&P 500 jumped 1.2% following the announcement, while the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.15%.
Key takeaways: - Inflation forecast revised down to 2.4% for 2026 - Unemployment projection raised slightly to 4.2% - GDP growth estimate maintained at 2.1%
Our take: The Fed is walking a tightrope — acknowledging that inflation is cooling while keeping optionality. Two cuts this year is the market's base case, but the real question is timing. September feels increasingly likely for the first move.
